In an earlier post on this blog site I commented on COVID and herd immunity (scroll down to see it). What would happen, I asked, if we just let the pandemic of coronavirus play itself out naturally? Herd immunity would eventually take effect and the pandemic would die down. But many, many more people would certainly die compared to the way we are handling the disease now with all those masks, social distancing, handwashing, and so forth.
But some argue that by letting things play out naturally, the economy would be much stronger because stores would be open and commerce would proceed normally. People wouldn’t be out of out of work and they would be able to pay their bills and wouldn’t get evicted from their homes/apartments, and wouldn’t have to stand in line at the food bank. Normal economy.
I say, “No way.”
A normal economy with no restrictions on travel and congregating and shopping would probably damage the economy to a degree that would make the economic loss we are currently suffering look like a Sunday school picnic. With a totally open economy, many more people would get the disease and hospitals would not be nearing capacity as they are now, they would be flooded. ICU’s wouldn’t be able to handle the load. Not even close. People would be dying in the hallways because beds would not be available. Hospitals would have to ration care, that is, decide who gets treatment and who doesn’t. The death rate, instead of hovering around 1.5% as it is now, would increase to 2 or even 3% because there wouldn’t be enough ventilators to handle all who needed one. That’s right, the number of deaths would not only skyrocket, but the death rate would go up as well. All those people who went to the stores and restaurants and bars and political rallies–nope, they wouldn’t be there. Your favorite waiter at a restaurant might not be there. Your favorite barkeep could be gone. Her kids might not make it either. Schools might have to close, with not enough teachers available. Doctors, nurses, and so forth–do I need to go on? Superspreader events would be commonplace. I can even see mass graves because mortuaries wouldn’t be able to handle the load.
But in addition, those who survived the virus might be compromised to one degree or another. We are seeing serious consequences to COVID infection: people who recover the initial infection can have heart, lung, kidney, even brain problems afterward, and many of these might be unable to return to work. Your favorite barber might be alive, but can’t stand for more than a few minutes at a time with his damaged lungs. I can’t put numbers to all this, but the repercussions to the economy with so many out of work would no doubt be far more serious than the economic loss we are currently experiencing. Make no mistake about it, we are doing the right thing in handling this pandemic until the vaccines come along (not too long now, either).